The holiday season signals the time of year when consumers are often at the highest risk of falling victim to hackers and scammers whose schemes can fool even the most experienced online shoppers. This infographic from Veracode advises web merchants and consumers on how to avoid Black Friday and Cyber Monday attacks.
NAHB, 2014 – A growing economy, rising household formations, low mortgage rates and pent-up demand will help single-family housing production to rev up in 2015 while a growth in renters will keep the multifamily market at cruising altitude or higher, according to economists who participated in yesterday’s National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) 2014 Fall Construction Forecast Webinar.
“Single-family builders are feeling good. They are not overly confident, but confident enough to keep moving forward,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.
He added that the single-family sector will finish out the year much stronger than it began and set the stage for a robust 2015.
“This is mostly due to significant pent-up demand and steady job and economic growth that will allow trade-up buyers who have delayed home purchases due to job insecurity to enter the marketplace,” said Crowe.
A Bright Outlook
NAHB is forecasting 991,000 total housing starts in 2014, up 6.6 percent from 930,000 units last year.
Single-family production is expected to rise 2.5 percent this year to 637,000 units, increase an additional 26 percent next year to 802,000 and reach 1.1 million in 2016.
Setting the 2000-2003 period as a benchmark for normal housing activity when single-family production averaged 1.3 million units annually, single-family starts are expected to steadily rise from 48 percent of what is considered a typical market in the third quarter of 2014 to 90 percent of normal by the fourth quarter of 2016.
Multifamily starts, which Crowe said are now at a normal level of production, are projected to increase 15 percent in 2014 to 356,000 units and hold steady next year.
Meanwhile, the NAHB Remodeling Market Index, which averages ratings of current remodeling activity with indicators of future activity, matched its all-time high of 57 in the third quarter of 2014 and has been above 50 for six consecutive quarters. A reading above 50 indicates that more remodelers report market activity is higher (compared to the prior quarter) than report it is lower.
NAHB is forecasting that residential remodeling will post a 3.4 percent decline in 2014 over last year, due in large part to slow activity in the first quarter caused by an unusual harsh winter throughout much of the nation. Residential remodeling activity is expected to rise 2.7 percent in 2015 and an additional 1.3 percent in 2016.
Housing Will Soon Be Undersupplied
Taking an even more bullish outlook, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said that prospects are good for continued gains in overall economic and housing activity.
“The reason is that job growth is quite strong,” said Zandi. “Currently, we are creating about 225,000 jobs per month, or 2.75 million per year. That is double the pace necessary to reduce unemployment and under employment, which augers very, very well for housing demand and the housing market more broadly.”
With the current supply of housing running just over 1 million units on annualized basis, Zandi said that this figure is well below what is needed for the longer run.
In the aftermath of the Great Recession, new household formations were depressed as the number of Millennials living with their parents or doubling or tripling up in apartments soared to about 3 to 4 million above normal, according to Zandi. As the economy continues to improve and these 18-to-34 year-olds begin to form their own households, this will boost overall demand for new housing construction.
“In a normal year, there should be demand for 1.7 million units,” he said, adding that each single-family home generates about 3.5 jobs over the course of a year and every multifamily unit produces 1.5 jobs over the same period.
Taking this one step further, Zandi said that increasing the housing stock by 700,000 units to meet this unmet demand would create 2.1 million jobs, which “would reduce unemployment by 1.5 percentage points.”
By the end of 2017, Zandi expects mortgage rates to rise from their current rate of about 4 percent back to their “equilibrium” of 6 percent, which he noted would be very consistent with a solid job market and solid housing market.
“The housing market will be fine because of better employment, higher wages and solid economic growth, which will trump the effect of higher mortgage rates,” he said.
He added that single-family starts could be closing in on 1 million units by the end of 2015 and multifamily production could go as high as 500,000 units.
Housing and Jobs Go Hand-in-Hand
Delving beneath the national numbers, Robert Denk, NAHB’s assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis, noted the housing recovery will vary by state and region.
“We are getting back to the point where economic conditions are dictating the strength of local housing markets,” said Denk. “It is very clear that those states with higher levels of payroll employment or labor market recovery are associated with healthier housing markets.”
Energy-producing states—North Dakota, Texas, Louisiana, Montana and Wyoming—where job growth is strong are also at the forefront of the housing recovery while Iowa and other farm belt states supported by agricultural commodities are also running above the nationwide average.
Meanwhile, states such as Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Alabama, Rhode Island and New Jersey that are coping with weak labor markets are also struggling to get their housing activity back on track.
Housing nationwide bottomed out at an average of 27 percent of normal production in early 2009 and the gradual and steady housing recovery now underway across the land will bring nationwide single-family housing starts to 68 percent of normal by the fourth quarter of 2015 and 90 percent of normal by the end of 2016.
In another way of looking at the long road back to normal, by the end of 2016 the top 40 percent of states will be back to normal production levels, compared to the bottom 20 percent, which will still be below 75 percent.
The new year is fast approaching, and with it a plethora of new year’s resolutions related to weight loss and general well being. Start your resolutions early by taking small steps that will help you get into shape.
Take the “work” out of workout with these ten fun fall activities.
Customizing your Nilson home has never been easier! Our new, state-of-the-art design center is a one-stop shop filled with designer-quality tools that will enable you to showcase your unique style.
Our on-site design specialist will guide you through the tailoring of your new home by helping you coordinate interior and exterior color selections. From carpet and cabinetry to stucco and stone, you’re able to give your home the warmth and character that reflects your personal taste. You’re in control.
Nilson Homes’ innovative design center takes the stress out of color selection, making an otherwise lengthy process smooth and streamline. It really has never been easier.
Our design center is open to view and turn in your ideas for your perfect home by appointment. Please call 801.392.8100 to schedule a time to meet with our Design Specialis
Today is Election Day so please be sure to get out and vote. If you don’t know where your polling place is you can locate it by clicking here.
Nelson Homes is participating in the Food for Funds Food Drive. Donations are due by tomorrow at noon. Please bring your non perishable food items to any one of the five locations listed below:
MIYA MEADOWS MODEL
FOX MEADOWS MODEL
COUNTRY HAVEN MODEL
HARMONY PLACE MODEL
|5617 S. 1475 E., South Ogden
2491 W. 2625 N., Farr West
771 W. 2775 N., Pleasant View
3708 S. 3525 W., West Haven
2223 W. Field Stone Way, Layton
Did you know trick or treaters would have to walk from New York to Boston just to burn off the calories they consume in one night? That you can be fined $1000 for trick or treating in Illinois? That kids eat the equivalent of 13 big macs of candy?
Jaw-dropping facts a plenty in this spooky Halloween infographic from Coupon Follow.
NAHB, 2014 - Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose for a fourth consecutive month in September to a level of 59 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. This latest four-point gain brings the index to its highest reading since November of 2005.
“Since early summer, builders in many markets across the nation have been reporting that buyer interest and traffic have picked up, which is a positive sign that the housing market is moving in the right direction,” said NAHB Chairman Kevin Kelly, a home builder and developer from Wilmington, Del.
“While a firming job market is helping to unleash pent-up demand for new homes and contributing to a gradual, upward trend in builder confidence, we are still not seeing much activity from first-time home buyers,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Other factors impeding the pace of the housing recovery include persistently tight credit conditions for consumers and rising costs for materials, lots and labor.”
Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
All three HMI components posted gains in September. The indices gauging current sales conditions and traffic of prospective buyers each rose five points to 63 and 47, respectively. The index gauging expectations for future sales increased two points to 67.
Builder confidence also rose across every region of the country in September. Looking at the three-month moving average for each region, the Midwest registered a five-point gain to 59, the South posted a four-point increase to 56, the Northeast recorded a three-point gain to 41 and the West posted a two-point increase to 58.
Editor’s Note: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is strictly the product of NAHB Economics, and is not seen or influenced by any outside party prior to being released to the public. HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi. More information on housing statistics is also available at housingeconomics.com.
The Northern Wasatch Association of Realtors and the The Northern Wasatch Home Builders Association have partnered with Nilson Homes in order to build a new construction home for a special needs family. The new home is substantially discounted thanks to Nilson Homes and it’s subcontractors that donate their supplies and labor. The Realtors and Affiliates further help to make the home more affordable by hosting fundraisers throughout the year and by collecting donations from individuals and local businesses, in which all funds raised go directly to the Have A Heart Home project.
Your help and contribution is greatly appreciated. Please fill out the form on our Charity page and return it with your donation to any of the locations listed below or you can mail it to our corporate office:
5617 South 1475 East
South Ogden, Utah 84403
“On behalf of the families that will benefit from your donation, all those involved with the Have A Heart Home project thank you.”
Style, and by association, your interior decoration decisions, are each extensions of your personality. There are many ways to express personality through design, and it’s easier than ever these days to find styles that are a direct match to the expression you would like to portray.
Over the past decade, the Internet has helped to innovate the way individuals decorate. A growing number of people are discovering more unique and customizable means of decorating their home through online inspiration boards, virtual tools, and sharing through social media. Take a look at the following infographic from HSN to find out how social media is revolutionizing Home Decor.